城市化与畜产品生产预测：健康与环境风险调整法

集约化农业生产所带来的环境影响和健康危害已经使人们逐渐认识到建立可持续农业发展途径的必要性。随着人们收入的增长,城市化的迅速发展成为消费模式转变的最为显见的驱动力。揭示在考虑到可持续发展的风险和不确定性的情况下对未来农业生产规划的预测,和在决策过程中恰当的风险指标,而这些内容的引入将极可能改变与畜产品设备配置和集约化程度相关的未来政策。以中国为例,研究主要目标为:(1)阐明如何将风险指标引入到决策过程中从而避免健康风险带来的负面结果;(2)阐明如何在农业生产规划中明确风险和不确定性,以达到可持续农业发展。     

Einzelbesprechungen

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The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy

This paper describes the structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board's (MPS) econometric model of the US economy. The theoretical underpinnings are developed using a small growth model that is a simplified version of the steady-state structure of the full model. Short-run dynamic properties, which are Keynesian, are discussed and quantified with simulation results. The largest part of the paper consists of a discussion of the theoretical basis and empirical properties of the key behavioural equations. A complete list of equations is included.     

The influence of immigration and international tourism on the demand for imported food products

The role of immigration and international tourism in food product imports, as two factors which potentially influence the (trans-) formation of tastes in a country, is theoretically and empirically analysed. In using an econometric error-correction specification of an import demand function, the scale of the impact of these two factors is estimated for the case of Germany (annual data from 1967 to 1990). The results show that, while aggregate food import demand from India, Thailand, China and Turkey is inelastic with regard to migration to Germany and international travel activities of Germans to these destinations, the estimated average elasticities for imports of wine, cheese and processed/preserved vegetables from France and Italy are all well above unity, thus suggesting that immigration and international tourism may indeed affect the import demand for certain food products.     

Schulleistungsunterschiede zwischen den deutschen Ländern

Since 2006 school achievement of German students has been measured on a regular basis within the so-called national educational monitoring. The most recent results show considerable differences between the states. At first glance, students in the eastern and southern states perform well while students in the city-states show poor results. This paper argues that these differences cannot be attributed to state-specific school policies. Rather, a large portion of the variance between the states can be explained by social and ethnical differences. As a consequence, not only educational policy but also social and integration policies have to be reviewed in order to get a better understanding of the differences in school achievement among the German states.     

What patents are used as collateral?—An empirical analysis of patent reassignment data

Only anecdotal evidence exists that ventures use patents as collateral to access debt financing. In this paper, we use a novel dataset on patent reassignments with a security interest to explore quantitatively what patents are used as collateral. We analyze characteristics of patents to disentangle whether it is the technology underlying a patent or the patent's exclusion right per se matters for collateralization. We do find empirical support only for technology-related characteristics, suggesting that lenders use patents to collateralize high-quality technology that can, in case of default, be redeployed to ventures in similar technology fields. On the other hand, patent-related characteristics like scope, which are, in general, related to patent value and are particularly important for non-practicing entities, do not matter.     

Cross-ownership as a structural explanation for over- and underestimation of default probability

Based on the work of Suzuki, we consider a generalization of Merton’s asset valuation approach in which two firms are linked by cross-ownership of equity and liabilities. Suzuki’s results then provide no arbitrage prices of firm values, which are derivatives of exogenous asset values. In contrast to the Merton model, the assumption of lognormally distributed assets does not result in lognormally distributed firm values, which also affects the corresponding probabilities of default. In a simulation study we see that, depending on the type of cross-ownership, the lognormal model can lead to both over- and underestimation of the actual probability of default of a firm under cross-ownership. In the limit, i.e. if the levels of cross-ownership tend to their maximum possible value, these findings can be shown theoretically as well. Furthermore, we consider the default probability of a firm in general, i.e. without a distributional assumption, and show that the lognormal model is often able to yield only a limited range of probabilities of default, while the actual probabilities may take any value between 0 and 1.     

Hedonic and utilitarian shopping goals: The online experience

Marketers offering Web-based shopping typically try to provide a convenient, safe, and pleasant online environment, appropriate to addressing shoppers' functional goals. They might also try to create an experience that encourages more escapist elements of “flow”, a sense of deep involvement that is intrinsically enjoyable, because they assume that this enhanced experience leads to more online buying. The present research suggests that utilitarian flow elements that facilitate shopping may indeed increase purchasing. However, hedonic elements of flow are found to be unrelated to online buying, although they are positively related to outcomes associated with pathological Internet use.     

城市化与畜产品生产预测:健康与环境风险调整法

集约化农业生产所带来的环境影响和健康危害已经使人们逐渐认识到建立可持续农业发展途径的必要性.随着人们收入的增长,城市化的迅速发展成为消费模式转变的最为显见的驱动力.揭示在考虑到可持续发展的风险和不确定性的情况下对未来农业生产规划的预测,和在决策过程中恰当的风险指标,而这些内容的引入将极可能改变与畜产品设备配置和集约化程度相关的未来政策.以中国为例,研究主要目标为:(1)阐明如何将风险指标引入到决策过程中从而避免健康风险带来的负面结果;(2)阐明如何在农业生产规划中明确风险和不确定性,以达到可持续农业发展.